The European Union Has Serious Problems And It’s Not ‘Pro Kremlin’ To Point Them Out

Mark Adomanis, Contributor

Sean Guillory and I don’t agree on everything (he’s much more economically left-wing than I am, and rather more pessimistic about where Russia is heading) but he’s extremely knowledgeable, an excellent writer, and someone and whose opinions deserve to be taken seriously. He recently wrote a truly outstanding piece that talked about how an “imaginary Europe” has captured Ukrainians’ collective imaginations. The article is worth reading in full, but here’s a particularly choice excerpt:

Europe is at a nadir. Yet Ukrainians are nevertheless clamoring to join it. Granted, I understand why so many Ukrainians place their hopes on “Europe” as a symbol for the future. In the cosmology of the West/East divide, Europe has wondrous powers over the imagination. My only fear is that by imbuing it with such symbolic meaning, Ukrainians will turn Europe into a false promise.

This angered a lot of people who are prone to describing Europe as a state of mind rather than a physical place inhabited by actual flesh-and-blood human beings. Given the parlous economic condition of the EU in late 2013, though, Sean is clearly accurate that Ukrainians run the risk of being sorely disappointed with their “civilizational choice.” I myself have written about how the EU’s “convergence machine” is broken, and you don’t need to be a Nobel-prize-winning economist to see that the EU’s economy has been performing abysmally since the end of the financial crisis. Integration with such an entity is unlikely to bring a rapid improvement in Ukraine’s economic performance.

But to some people pointing out the obvious and incontestable fact that Europe has a number of serious problems is evidence of some dark intent or perhaps even pro-Kremlin sympathies. As always, I prefer to let a few charts do most of the talking:

You often hear Russia described as “stagnant,” and it is true that it’s economy has been decelerating sharply over the course of 2013. However, the European Union isn’t just having a bad year, it has been economically stagnant for the better part of a decade. Per capita incomes in the EU are essentially unchanged since 2006. And unemployment in the EU has been on a remorseless rise since 2008, and there is no end in site. Economic stagnation and mass unemployment are, quite simply, two of the EU’s distinguishing features in 2013.

Now perhaps Ukrainians are undaunted by the EU’s massive economic failure, perhaps they place a much higher value on civil rights, democracy, and the rule of law. That is a respectable position, and the choice of integration is entirely theirs to make. If Ukrainians genuinely want integration with the EU (and the hundreds of thousands of people out in the streets would suggest this is the case) then they should have integration with the EU.

But Ukrainians should have no illusions whatsoever about what they are integrating with. This is not the Europe of the 1990′s or early 2000′s when 3% annual growth was a given and economic policy makers were more worried about labor shortages then they were mass unemployment. Europe in 2013 is a much more austere and nastier place, and large swaths of the EU remain locked in what can only be described as depression-like conditions. If Ukraine integrates with the EU it should expect no short-term economic jolt because Europe’s economy is performing terribly.

It is important to state this plainly and openly not because it aids the Kremlin, but because it is true. It is also incredibly important to avoid inflating popular expectations. During the 1990′s Russians were told that “democracy” would not only make them more free, but it would also make them rich. That didn’t happen, and Russians gradually began to associate the lofty rhetoric of “democratic politics” with the ugly and dangerous reality of economic collapse. There is a very real risk that the same thing could happen in Ukraine, and that “integration” and “Europe” will become tarred with the years of economic pain that, at this point, are basically inevitable.

The EU has many laudable qualities, and European norms in many senses represent a real improvement over current Ukrainian practice. A Ukraine with more “European” legal and regulatory systems would undoubtedly be a better place to live. But given current economic realities, a Ukraine that moves towards Europe is unlikely to be a much more prosperous one.

Πηγή :  anixneuseis.gr

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