In Ukraine, Attacks Erupt at Delicate Time

At least four explosions occurred April 27 in the center of the eastern Ukrainian city of Dnipropetrovsk. At least 27 people were injured but there were no deaths. The attacks involved small devices that appear to have been detonated indiscriminately -- very different tactics from those used in typical incidents in Dnipropetrovsk. 

The attacks come at a sensitive time for Ukraine, because it is preparing to co-host the Euro 2012 soccer tournament in June.

Analysis

The explosions occurred within about an hour of each other, starting just before noon along Karl Marx Avenue, the city's main thoroughfare. The order of the blasts is unclear, but the targets were a tram stop, a train station, a movie theater and an area near a school. Police neutralized a fifth device. 

According to unconfirmed reports, police engaged individuals in a shootout near a shopping center later in the day, suggesting that police may have already located the suspects. However, authorities have not yet confirmed any arrests. Although a number of violent incidents have occurred in Dnipropetrovsk over the past few years, attacks as brazen and indiscriminate as the April 27 explosions are rare.

Dnipropetrovsk is one of Ukraine's regional industrial hubs and is known to have a sizable organized crime presence. Two businessmen have been assassinated in the city in the past five months. In November 2011, the director of a local construction company was killed by a remotely detonated device as he walked past the trash can in which it was concealed. A second businessman, who previously was targeted in an explosive attack, was shot in his car as he returned home the evening of April 14.

 Because the April 27 attacks occurred so soon after the April 14 assassination, the possibility that they are related cannot be ruled out. However, tactically, the incidents differed greatly.

The April 27 attacks were far less discriminate and indicate a lower level of sophistication than the assassinations carried out in Dnipropetrovsk. This lower level of sophistication indicates that the April 27 attacks likely were the work of a different perpetrator.

Previous attacks in Ukraine offer a possible explanation of the motives for the April 27 incidents. In January 2011, individuals detonated two explosive devices in highly public places in the eastern city of Makiyivka. 

They later demanded 4 million euros ($5.3 million) to prevent future attacks. The explosions in Dnipropetrovsk could be an attempt to copy this tactic. Ukraine and Poland are preparing to host the Euro 2012 soccer tournament, and Dnipropetrovsk is slated to be a stop on the Euro Cup trophy tour May 21. Disturbing the peace so close to the start of the event could be an attempt to extort the city or Ukraine while the country is the focus of increased international attention.

Although the April 27 explosions do not bear the hallmarks of a sophisticated operation, they warrant attention because of the upcoming Euro Cup tournament. If the perpetrator (or others around Ukraine) carries out similar attacks ahead of the tournament, Ukraine could be pressured to act. Poland already has indicated its concern over the attacks and the security environment around the tournament. Even though the attacks were small and indiscriminate, a panicked response to the incident could carry more significance than the incident itself.

stratfor.com